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External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries

August 28, 2011 Comments off

External Sustainability of Oil-Producing Sub-Saharan African Countries
Source: International Monetary Fund

In the extensive empirical work carried out across the IMF on oil-producing sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, the notion of “sustainability” is often directed toward fiscal policies, and, in particular, views on the “optimal” non-oil primary fiscal deficit. The bulk of this work does not, however, address external sustainability, which is a concern especially for those SSA oil producers operating under a fixed exchange rate regime. A couple of recent papers have extended the existing methodologies to assess external sustainability for some oil-producing countries but they do not focus on those in sub-Saharan Africa. In this paper, we bolster this empirical work by providing a range of estimates for the long-run external current external account balance for each of the SSA oil-producing countries, based on three widely used methodologies in the IMF. Our research strategy is to apply these models to the eight countries in the subregion – Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, and the Republic of Congo – using similar simplifying assumptions so that we are using the same lens to view how they do and do not differ.

+ Full Paper (PDF)

Categories: Angola, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Chad, energy, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, International Monetary Fund, Nigeria

Country Analysis Brief: Angola

August 28, 2011 Comments off

Country Analysis Brief: Angola
Source: Energy Information Administration

Over the past decade, Angola has become one of the largest crude oil producing countries in Africa, and even briefly became the largest in 2009, surpassing Nigeria as the latter suffered from attacks on oil infrastructure in the Niger Delta. The oil sector plays an important role in the Angolan economy, accounting for over 95 percent of export revenues and over 75 percent of government revenues according to theInternational Monetary Fund. 

Angola is a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and as such, faces crude oil production limitations set by the organization. Angola’s target crude oil production is currently between 1.52 and 1.66 million barrels per day (bbl/d). Despite these limitations, Angola is expected to increase oil production and capacity in the short-term as new offshore projects come online and foreign investment continues to flow into the sector. 

Natural gas production in Angola is tied directly to oil production and is often vented or flared, with limited volumes consumed domestically. Developments are underway to capture and market this natural gas for domestic electricity generation and to export most of it in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2012. 

Map of Angola
Categories: Angola, energy, Energy Information Administration
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