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Qualitative Updated Discussion of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2012

March 25, 2012 Comments off

Qualitative Updated Discussion of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2012 (PDF)
Source: Tropical Meteorology Project, Colorado State University (Dr. Gray)

We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatological average. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. This update briefly discusses changes in large-scale ocean/atmosphere patterns that we believe are relevant for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.

Qualitative Discussion of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2012

December 10, 2011 Comments off

Qualitative Discussion of Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Activity for 2012 (PDF)
Source: Tropical Meteorology Project, Colorado State University (Dr. Gray)

We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year and giving a more qualitative discussion of the factors which will determine next year’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill. Reasons for this unexpected lack of skill are discussed.

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011 (Dr. Gray)

June 1, 2011 Comments off

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011 (PDF)
Source: Colorado State University, Tropical Meteorology Project (Dr. William M. Gray)

We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. We are predicting the same levels of activity that were forecast in early April due to the combination of expected neutral ENSO conditions and very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Atlantic. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011

April 7, 2011 Comments off

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2011 (PDF)
Source: Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project

We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Our seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.

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