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NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño
NOAA raises hurricane season prediction despite expected El Niño
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 6 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half, according to the updated hurricane season outlook issued today by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. The updated outlook still indicates a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, but increases the chance of an above-normal season to 35 percent and decreases the chance of a below-normal season to only 15 percent from the initial outlook issued in May.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook projects a total (which includes the activity-to-date of tropical storms Alberto, Beryl, Debbie, Florence and hurricanes Chris and Ernesto) of:
- 12 to 17 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
- 5 to 8 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
- 2 to 3 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
State of the Climate — July 2012: hottest month on record for contiguous United States
State of the Climate — July 2012: hottest month on record for contiguous United States
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. during July was 77.6°F, 3.3°F above the 20th century average, marking the hottest July and the hottest month on record for the nation. The previous warmest July for the nation was July 1936 when the average U.S. temperature was 77.4°F. The warm July temperatures contributed to a record-warm first seven months of the year and the warmest 12-month period the nation has experienced since recordkeeping began in 1895.
Precipitation totals were mixed during July, with the contiguous U.S. as a whole being drier than average. The nationally averaged precipitation total of 2.57 inches was 0.19 inch below average. Near-record dry conditions were present for the middle of the nation, with the drought footprint expanding to cover nearly 63 percent of the Lower 48, according the U.S. Drought Monitor.
NOAA — State of the Climate
State of the Climate
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climatic Data Center)
The State of the Climate Report is a collection of monthly summaries recapping climate-related occurrences on both a global and national scale.
NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Conditions in the atmosphere and the ocean favor a near-normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this season, NOAA announced today from Miami at its Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, and home to the Hurricane Research Division.
For the entire six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says there’s a 70 percent chance of nine to 15 named storms (with top winds of 39 mph or higher), of which four to eight will strengthen to a hurricane (with top winds of 74 mph or higher) and of those one to three will become major hurricanes (with top winds of 111 mph or higher, ranking Category 3, 4 or 5). Based on the period 1981-2010, an average season produces 12 named storms with six hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
See also: NOAA predicts near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season
See also: NOAA expects below-normal Central Pacific hurricane season
March 2012 Heat Wave
March 2012 Heat Wave
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Numerous cities broke temperature records for January-March (year-to-date, or YTD). The following map and table present some of these record averages. Each city listed observed its warmest YTD period. Also included are the running minimum and maximum temperatures with respect to the top 5 average YTD temperatures.
Risk of major flooding in spring is low for the first time in four years
Risk of major flooding in spring is low for the first time in four years
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
For the first time in four years, no area of the country faces a high risk of major to record spring flooding, largely due to the limited winter snowfall, according to NOAA’s annual Spring Outlook, which forecasts the potential for flooding from April to June.
“We’re not forecasting a repeat of recent historic and prolonged flooding in the central and northern U.S., and that is a relief,” said Laura Furgione, deputy director, NOAA’s National Weather Service. “The severity of any flooding this year will be driven by rainfall more so than the melting of the current snowpack.”
The Ohio River basin including portions of Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, along with parts of Louisiana and Mississippi are the only areas with an above-normal risk of flooding as soil moisture and river levels are currently above normal. Additionally, odds favor above-average April rainfall for the Ohio River basin.
River and stream water levels are normal to below normal for most of the country and there is less snow pack than in previous years. As a result, there is a normal flood risk from the Northeast, through the mid-Atlantic, across most of the northern Plains and into the Northwest. However, heavy spring rainfall can lead to flooding at any time, even in areas where overall risk is considered at or even below normal.
NOAA — State of the Climate
State of the Climate
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climatic Data Center)
Warmer-than-average temperatures dominated the northern and eastern regions of the country in December, January and February, leading to the fourth warmest winter on record for the contiguous United States. The winter season was also drier-than-average for the Lower 48, with dry conditions experienced across the West and the Southeast but wetter-than-average conditions in the Central and Southern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley.
The average contiguous U.S. temperature during the December-February period was 36.8 degrees F, 3.9 degrees F above the 1901-2000 long-term average — the warmest since 2000. The precipitation averaged across the nation was 5.70 inches, 0.78 inch below the long-term average.
NOAA satellites aid in the rescue of 207 people in 2011
NOAA satellites aid in the rescue of 207 people in 2011
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
In 2011, NOAA satellites were critical in the rescues of 207 people from life-threatening situations throughout the United States and its surrounding waters. The satellites picked up distress signals from emergency beacons carried by downed pilots, shipwrecked boaters and stranded hikers, and relayed the information about their location to first responders on the ground.
NOAA’s polar-orbiting and geostationary satellites are part of the international Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking System, called COSPAS-SARSAT. This system uses a network of satellites to quickly detect and locate distress signals from emergency beacons onboard aircraft and boats, and from smaller, handheld personal locator beacons called PLBs.
Of the 207 saves last year, 122 people were rescued from the water, 14 from aviation incidents, and 71 in land situations where they used their PLBs.
Public Review Draft of the National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Public Review Draft of the National Fish, Wildlife and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy
Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/New York Division of Fish, Wildlife, & Marine Resources
The National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy is an integrated, coordinated, and comprehensive response to the threats of climate change. This multi-partner effort will outline a unified approach to maintaining the key terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems needed to sustain fish, wildlife and plant resources and the services they provide in the face of accelerating climate change.
In short—it is a blueprint for common action. The Strategy will serve as a valuable tool for federal and state agencies, wildlife managers, tribes, and private landowners as they continue to manage their lands and natural resources in a changing environment.
+ Strategy Fact Sheet (PDF)
NOAA: Coral reef successfully restored after 2002 boat grounding in Florida Keys
Corals damaged in 2002 when a boat ran aground in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary are now thriving following a restoration and near decade-long monitoring effort, according to a new NOAA report released today. With hundreds of groundings happening each year in the sanctuary, lessons learned from this coral reef restoration and monitoring will guide future restoration efforts.
In August 2002, the 36-foot long boat Lagniappe II ran aground on a shallow coral reef near Key West, Fla., damaging approximately 376 square-feet of living coral in the sanctuary. After sanctuary staff assessed the damage to the reef, restoration biologists used special cement that hardens under water to reattach 473 corals and coral fragments that had been toppled or dislodged during the grounding. The majority of affected corals were boulder star coral, a primary reef building coral in the Florida Keys.
To determine the progress of their restoration efforts, the sanctuary and the National Coral Reef Institute of Nova Southeastern University’s Oceanographic Center, used digital photographs and highly specialized computer software to count the types and amounts of coral in the damaged area as well as an adjacent unaffected reference site. Sanctuary biologists could then compare the restoration area with the reference area and note changes over time.
The sanctuary tracked coral condition at the restoration site over an eight-year period, beginning in 2002. By 2009, the reattached coral fragments were undistinguishable from the adjacent uninjured coral colonies. A year later, the amount of coral at the restoration site was higher than at the reference site.
Active 2011 hurricane season breaks ‘Hurricane Amnesia’
Active 2011 hurricane season breaks ‘Hurricane Amnesia’
Source: NOAA
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season officially ends Wednesday, having produced a total of 19 tropical storms of which seven became hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. This level of activity matched NOAA’s predictions and continues the trend of active hurricane seasons that began in 1995.
The 19 tropical storms represent the third-highest total (tied with 1887, 1995, and 2010) since records began in 1851 and is well above the average of 11. However, the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes is only slightly above the average of six and two, respectively. This year’s totals include a post-storm upgrade of Tropical Storm Nate to hurricane status, and the addition of a short-lived, unnamed tropical storm that formed in early September between Bermuda and Nova Scotia. This unnamed storm, along with several other weak, short-lived named storms, could have gone undetected without modern satellite technology.
Irene was the lone hurricane to hit the United States in 2011, and the first one to do so since Ike struck southeast Texas in 2008. Irene was also the most significant tropical cyclone to strike the Northeast since Hurricane Bob in 1991.
“Irene broke the ‘hurricane amnesia’ that can develop when so much time lapses between landfalling storms,” said Jack Hayes, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “This season is a reminder that storms can hit any part of our coast and that all regions need to be prepared each and every season.”
Arctic Report Card — Update for 2011
Arctic Report Card — Update for 2011
Source: NOAA Arctic Research Program
From Executive Summary:
The Arctic Report Card (www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/) considers a wide range of environmental observations throughout the Arctic, and is updated annually. A major conclusion of the 2011 Report is that there are now a sufficient number of years of data to indicate a shift in the Arctic Ocean system since 2006. This shifted is characterized by the persistent decline in the thickness and summer extent of the sea ice cover, and a warmer, fresher upper ocean. As a result of increased open water area, biological productivity at the base of the marine food chain has increased and sea ice-dependent marine mammals continue to lose habitat. Increases in the greenness of tundra vegetation and permafrost temperatures are linked to warmer land temperatures in coastal regions, often adjacent to the areas of greatest sea ice retreat. A second key point in the 2011 Report is the repeated occurrence of 2010 Arctic winter wind patterns that mark a departure from the norm. These changes resulted in higher than normal temperatures in the Arctic, with record ice sheet mass loss, record low late spring snow cover in Eurasia, shorter lake ice duration, and unusually lower temperatures and snow storms in some low latitude regions. A potential indicator of recent atmospheric changes was record low ozone concentrations in March 2011. The 2011 Report Card shows that record-setting changes are occurring throughout the Arctic environmental system. Given the projection of continued global warming, it is very likely that major Arctic changes will continue in years to come, with increasing climatic, biological and social impacts.
NOAA greenhouse gas index continues climbing
NOAA greenhouse gas index continues climbing
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA’s updated Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which measures the direct climate influence of many greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, shows a continued steady upward trend that began with the Industrial Revolution of the 1880s.
Started in 2004, the AGGI reached 1.29 in 2010. That means the combined heating effect of long-lived greenhouse gases added to the atmosphere by human activities has increased by 29 percent since 1990, the “index” year used as a baseline for comparison. This is slightly higher than the 2009 AGGI, which was 1.27, when the combined heating effect of those additional greenhouse gases was 27 percent higher than in 1990.
U.S. dealt another La Niña winter but ‘wild card’ could trump it
U.S. dealt another La Niña winter but ‘wild card’ could trump it
Source: NOAA
The Southern Plains should prepare for continued drier and warmer than average weather, while the Pacific Northwest is likely to be colder and wetter than average from December through February, according to the annual Winter Outlook released today by NOAA.
For the second winter in a row, La Niña will influence weather patterns across the country, but as usual, it’s not the only climate factor at play. The ‘wild card’ is the lesser-known and less predictable Arctic Oscillation that could produce dramatic short-term swings in temperatures this winter.
NOAA expects La Niña, which returned in August, to gradually strengthen and continue through the upcoming winter. It is associated with cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and influences weather throughout the world.
See also: AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One
U.S. National Bycatch Report
U.S. National Bycatch Report
Source: NOAA Fisheries Service
From press release (PDF):
A new NOAA report of data collected in 2005 will help the agency’s scientists better monitor progress in reducing bycatch – the non-target fish, marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds caught incidentally in fishing.
Bycatch costs fishermen time and money, harms endangered and threatened species, affects marine and coastal ecosystems, and makes it more difficult for scientists to measure the effect of fishing on the stock’s population, and for managers to set sustainable levels for fishing. Preventing and reducing bycatch is an important part of ensuring sustainable living marine resources and coastal communities. The 2006 reauthorization of the Magnuson Stevens Act, the nation’s principal law for living marine resources, made bycatch reduction a priority, leading NOAA to establish a bycatch reduction program to develop technological devices and other conservation engineering solutions.
While the National Bycatch Report does not represent an estimate of current bycatch rates, it is the first to compile collect regional data about U.S. commercial fisheries into one nationwide report, found that 17 percent of fish caught commercially were harvested unintentionally. The report also details the numbers of marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds caught incidentally during fishing operations in 2005. The retrospective report provides a baseline for measuring bycatch reduction and establishes a consistent, comprehensive methodology for future studies.
NOAA, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Revise Loggerhead Sea Turtle Listing; Changes will help Guide Conservation Efforts
NOAA, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Revise Loggerhead Sea Turtle Listing; Changes will help Guide Conservation Efforts
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
NOAA and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service issued a final rule today changing the listing of loggerhead sea turtles under the Endangered Species Act from a single threatened species to nine distinct population segments listed as either threatened or endangered.
Scientists believe this will help focus their sea turtle conservation efforts to the specific needs of the distinct populations. NOAA and FWS share jurisdiction for loggerhead sea turtles listed under the ESA.
“This division of loggerhead sea turtles into nine distinct population segments will help us focus more on the individual threats turtles face in different areas,” said Jim Lecky, NOAA Fisheries director of protected resources. “Wide-ranging species, such as the loggerhead, benefit from assessing and addressing threats on a regional scale.”
“Both agencies agreed that loggerhead sea turtle conservation benefits from an approach that recognizes regionally varying threats,” said Cindy Dohner, FWS southeast regional director. “Today’s listing of separate distinct population segments will help us better assess, monitor, and address threats, and evaluate conservation successes, on a regional scale.”
On March 16, 2010, the agencies proposed to list seven distinct population segments, also known as DPSs, as endangered and two as threatened. In the final rule issued today, five were listed as endangered and four as threatened.
Two of the final statuses, for the Southeast Indo-Pacific Ocean and Northwest Atlantic Ocean DPSs, were changed from endangered in the proposal to threatened. Scientists determined that the Southeast Indo-Pacific Ocean DPS is threatened because the majority of nesting occurs on protected lands and nesting trends appear to be stable. In addition, some of the fisheries bycatch effects appear to have been resolved through requirement of turtle excluder devices in shrimp trawlers, and longline fishery effort has declined due to fish stock decreases and economic reasons.
Scientists found that the Northwest Atlantic Ocean DPS is threatened based on review of nesting data available after the proposed rule was published, information provided in public comments to the proposed rule, and further analysis within the agencies. Even so, substantial conservation efforts are underway to address the threats to these DPSs.
Retaining their proposed status, five DPSs were listed as endangered–Northeast Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, North Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean and South Pacific Ocean–and two others were listed as threatened — South Atlantic Ocean and Southwest Indian Ocean.
NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update
NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Update
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, and a 15% chance of a near-normal season. There is no expectation for a below-normal season. Therefore, 2011 is expected to become the twelfth above-normal season since 1995. This updated outlook reflects a higher likelihood of an above-normal season compared to the pre-season outlook issued in May, which indicated a 65% chance of an above-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.
The higher confidence of an above-normal season is based on several factors. First, as predicted in May, conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions are now in place over the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea (called the Main Development Region- MDR). Second, these conditions are expected to persist throughout the peak months (August-October) of the hurricane season in association with the tropical multi-decadal signal, which has contributed to the high activity era that began in 1995. Third sea-surface temperatures in the MDR are the third warmest on record, and models predict a continuation of very warm SSTs through the hurricane season. Fourth, there is a possibility of La Niña re-developing.
Historically, this combination of conditions produces an active Atlantic hurricane season. In addition, several dynamical model forecasts of the number and strength of tropical cyclones indicate that an above normal season is likely.
The 2011 season is expected to be comparable to a number of active seasons since 1995. We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2011:
- 14-19 Named Storms,
- 7-10 Hurricanes
- 3-5 Major Hurricanes
- An ACE range of 135%-215% of the 1981-2010 median.
Endangered species listing for Atlantic bluefin tuna not warranted; Agency remains concerned; will revisit decision with new science
Endangered species listing for Atlantic bluefin tuna not warranted; Agency remains concerned; will revisit decision with new science (PDF)
Source: NOAA (National Marine Fisheries Service)
After an extensive scientific review, NOAA announced today that Atlantic bluefin tuna currently do not warrant species protection under the Endangered Species Act.
NOAA has committed to revisit this decision by early 2013, when more information will be available about the effects of the Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill, as well as a new stock assessment from the scientific arm of the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tunas, the international body charged with the fish’s management and conservation.
NOAA is formally designating both the western Atlantic and eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean stocks of bluefin tuna as “species of concern” under the Endangered Species Act. This places the species on a watchlist for concerns about its status and threats to the species.
NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
From press release:
Hurricanes Karl, Igor and Julia (from left to right on Sept. 16) were part of the onslaught of Atlantic storms last hurricane season (2010).
The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
- 12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
- 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
- 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season
NOAA hurricane outlook indicates an above-normal Atlantic season
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center – a division of the National Weather Service.
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:
12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
- 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
- 3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
